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Orakel der Neuzeit: was leisten Wahlbörsen, Wählerstromanalysen und Wahltagshochrechnungen?

Modern oracles: achievements of political stock markets, ecological analysis of electoral data, and election day forecasts
[journal article]

Hofinger, Christoph
Ogris, Günther

Abstract

'Wahlbörsen, Wählerstromanalysen und Hochrechnungen werden zwar in der Öffentlichkeit viel beachtet, in der politikwissenschaftlichen Forschung aber nur selten diskutiert, weil die Methodologie jeweils komplex und ungewohnt ist. Alle Verfahren weisen eine Reihe spezifischer Probleme auf, die die Wah... view more

'Wahlbörsen, Wählerstromanalysen und Hochrechnungen werden zwar in der Öffentlichkeit viel beachtet, in der politikwissenschaftlichen Forschung aber nur selten diskutiert, weil die Methodologie jeweils komplex und ungewohnt ist. Alle Verfahren weisen eine Reihe spezifischer Probleme auf, die die Wahlsoziologie nur in Kooperation mit den Experimental Economics, aus denen die Wahlbörsen kommen, und mit der Statistik, aus denen die Wählerstromanalyse kommt, lösen kann. Wahlbörsen haben nach ihren anfänglichen Prognose-Erfolgen eine Größe und eine Öffentlichkeitswirkung erlangt, die die Vorhersagegenauigkeit vermutlich wieder stark beeinträchtigen. In unserem Beitrag fassen wir die jüngste Geschichte der Political Stock Markets zusammen und geben einige Design-Empfehlungen. Wählerstromanalysen, die auch die Basis für Wahltagshochrechnungen liefern, sind mit einer Reihe von methodischen Herausforderungen konfrontiert. Wir belegen mit österreichischen Wahldaten die andernorts geäußerte Vermutung, dass einer adäquaten Gruppierung von Gemeinden zur Vermeidung eines aggregate bias die höchste Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt werden sollte.' (Autorenreferat)... view less


'Political stock markets, ecological analysis of electoral data, and election day forecasts based on early returns often achieve high levels of publicity and media coverage; however, they get little attention in political science publications, probably because of their complex and unusual methodolog... view more

'Political stock markets, ecological analysis of electoral data, and election day forecasts based on early returns often achieve high levels of publicity and media coverage; however, they get little attention in political science publications, probably because of their complex and unusual methodology. All three of them deal with specific problems. Electoral research will only be able to solve these problems in cooperation with experimental economics (the origin of political stock markets) and statistics (ecological analysis). Political stock markets, after their quick prognostic success, reached such high user numbers and public attention that this in turn probably reduced their ability to forecast electoral results. In our contribution we summarize the recent history of political stock markets and give recommendations for their future design. Ecological calculation of voting transitions as a basis of election day forecasts is faced with numerous methodological challenges. Earlier research suggests that grouping of communities would help to reduce aggregate bias. We describe evidence from Austrian electoral data that supports this point of view.' (author's abstract)... view less

Keywords
prognosis; Austria; election; statistical method; National Council; projection (statistical); method; forecast procedure; election research; stock exchange

Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture

Method
development of methods; basic research

Document language
German

Publication Year
2002

Page/Pages
p. 143-158

Journal
Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 31 (2002) 2

ISSN
2313-5433

Status
Published Version; reviewed

Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-NonCommercial


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Based on DSpace, Copyright (c) 2002-2022, DuraSpace. All rights reserved.