Political meetings of the National Socialists and the increase of the NSDAP vote: analyzing conditions of propaganda effects with aggregate data

Abstract

This article seeks to explore the link between the campaign propaganda of the National Socialists and the electoral gains of the NSDAP. Two conditions are analyzed which might modify an effect of NSDAP propaganda on the party's electoral scores. First, it is examined whether the impact of NSDAP meetings depends on the percentage of 'nationalistic' voters. Second, it is tested whether the public meetings of the NSDAP's right-wing competitors could restrain the effect of National Socialist campaign propaganda. The multivariate analysis of a sample of 226 communities demonstrates that the NSDAP's campaign intensity significantly advanced the rise of the party. This influence of NSDAP propaganda is indeed the larger, the higher the percentage of 'nationalistic' voters in a community. Moreover, the analysis reveals the effect of NSDAP propaganda to be greater in communities where the public activities of the party's right-wing rivals were above the average. Overall, the findings presented in the article strongly suggest that NSDAP propaganda is an important predictor of the party's increase.