Post-Sanctions Iran: China-Inspired Dream, Soviet-Style Collapse, or Something Else?

Abstract

Iran’s nuclear deal with the six major world powers, implemented in January 2016, has fueled much speculation both inside and outside Iran. Many are hopeful that the lifting of multilateral sanctions will serve to assuage the decade-long animosity stoked by Iran’s nuclear program. For most Iranians, the removal of sanctions offers an economic lifeline, a possible end to political pariah status, and a re-integration into the global economy. For Americans, Europeans, and Asians, it offers a potential solution to, or deferment of, a pressing security concern, as well as presenting enticing business opportunities. Furthermore, a Western-Iranian détente could well serve as a stabilizing force across the greater Middle East.