Exit polling in an emergent democracy: the complex case of Ukraine

Abstract

"This report considers the methodological specifics of conducting exit polls to verify election returns, mainly using an example of election campaigns in Ukraine from 2002-2007. The deepest public resonance was aroused by exit polls conducted after the second round of Ukrainian presidential elections in 2004. These polls were one of the factors, which led to massive demonstrations (the so-called 'Orange Revolution') and the revocation of election results. The authors show that in the environment of administrative pressure on voters, governmental control of mass media, and severe political struggle, inaccuracy increases. Thus, to acquire reliable and valid information, the polling methods used must be modified. The recommendations given for the methodology of conducting exit polls may be useful for emergent democratic countries." (author's abstract)