Nothing ventured, nothing gained? The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the effectiveness of the European Neighbourhood Policy

Abstract

Relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine appear to be stuck at the verge of a new era. While a new Association Agreement providing for an unprecedented degree of political cooperation and economic integration is ready to enter into force, political developments in Ukraine prevent the EU from proceeding with its signature and ratification. This peculiar situation represents a crucial test case for the effectiveness of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Effectiveness in this case is defined by the objectives that guide the EU in its pursuit of the ENP, and by the degree to which the Union lives up to its capabilities to reach them. In the case of Ukraine, the policy turns out to be largely effective, considering that the EU’s top priority is the avoidance of political and economic risks. However, this focus on risk avoidance severely limits the Union’s leverage regarding the attainment of any other policy objectives, most importantly norm transfer and security cooperation. Consequently, even a largely effective ENP is unlikely to have a significant impact on the situation in Ukraine and elsewhere as long as the Union does not change its priorities.