Rationales Herdenverhalten bei US-amerikanischen Rentenmarkt-Analysten: Verhaltensabstimmung durch ein externes Signal

Abstract

"Experimental research found contradictory results regarding the occurrence of informational cascades. Whereas Anderson and Holt (1997) confirmed the model of Banerjee (1992), and Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welch (1992) through lab tests, Huck and Oechssler 2000) came to controversial results for crucial issues. This study is an extensive (227 test persons) - and as regards contents - expanded repetition. In conclusion, less than 10% of subjects are able to make deductions about predecessors’ private signals from their actions, to consider the reliability of the signals and the a priori probability, to accurately use Bayes’ Rule, and to thus reach rational decisions." (author's abstract)