Pre-collectivization peasantry social dynamics: retroprognosis: application of alternative modells

Abstract

Anfang der 30er Jahre endete in der UdSSR die 'Neue Politische Ökonomie' und es begann die Phase der Zwangskollektivierung der sowjetischen Landwirtschaft. Der vorliegende Beitrag versucht durch ein Simulationsmodell einer nicht kollektivierten Bauernschaft die verloren gegangenen Möglichkeiten der 'Neuen Politischen Ökonomie' retrospektiv in Erinnerung zu bringen. Die Modellparameter stützen sich auf Erhebungen Mitte der 20er Jahre. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation zeigen, daß bei Fortsetzung der 'freien Marktwirtschaft' die Bauernschaft nicht wie vorausgesagt und befürchtet in sich bekämpfende Gruppen zerfallen wäre, sondern eine Nivellierung hin auf Mittellagen eingetreten wäre. (pmb)

'The events that occurred in the USSR at the end of the 1920s - beginning of the 1930s were given the name 'great break'. It was the end of NEP - New Economic Policy. This work applies simulation to retroprognosis of the pre-collectivization peasantry social structure dynamics to 'prolong' the NEP rural population social mobility tendencies up to the late 30ies, which offers an opportunity to disclose distinctly the nature of social processes in the countryside before the collectivization, to detect the directions and extent of the social differentiation. Simulation based on Markovs chains allows to assess a theory that market economy inevitably entails rural population differentiation and antagonistic social groups formation from the formerly homogeneous mass of petty commodity producers. The model's parameters were estimated by using the data on the rural social processes, recorded by dynamic censuses of the mid-20ies. The results of simulation indicate that if the NEP economic conditions had been sustained, the peasantry wouldn't have splitted into opposed group, on the contrary, the position of medium strata would have grown stronger against the background of the overall economic growth.' (author's abstract)