An examination of business cycle features in UK sectoral output

Abstract

This paper examines business cycle features of UK GDP sectors with regard to trends, cycles and growth. The empirical study adopts the Kalman filter to decompose these GDP sectors into trend and cycle components. The general model of this study encompasses a number of alternative specifications about trend growth, therefore accommodating diverse views on growth. There is reasonable support in the results for a mean-reverting stochastic growth model for the UK economy. The characteristics in trends and cycles of UK GDP sectors are discussed, focusing on their similarities and differences around business cycles.