Stock Market Returns in an Emerging Financial Market: Turkish Case Study

Abstract

Increased globalisation in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. The recent speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in November 2000, followed by February 2001, led Turkey into deep economic crisis. Real stock returns as an important indicator for a forthcoming or pending financial crisis, using net capital flows have already been established in Gazioglu (2003). In this paper we explore the effects of capital inflows and outflows to real exchange rates and the real stock market returns, before, and after the financial crisis.