Trend Breaks in the Research and Development Process

Abstract

This work examines the behaviour of the input and output measures of the R&D process in the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in the second half of the 20th century. The researcher and idea stock series can be construed as stationary fluctuations around a trend function, with a main breakpoint at the end of the 1960s. All the countries exhibit slower growth after their last breaks than during the decades preceding their first breaks. In this connection, the United States and Germany appear to represent the end points in the range of incidence.