Russia as a 'virtual great power': implications of its declining role in European and Eurasia security

Abstract

"Russland befindet sich langfristig weiterhin in einem sozioökonomischen Abstieg. Es ist unrealistisch zu erwarten, dass Moskau seinen alten Status als Supermacht wiedergewinnen wird. Stattdessen werden die EU und die VR China Russland auf dem eurasischen Kontinent an internationaler Bedeutung überholen." (Autorenreferat)

"Instead of analyzing just some recent developments of Russia's domestic, foreign and security policies, this article focuses in particular on mid- and long-term strategic trends and the consequences of Russia's decline for European and Eurasian Security. It argues that Russia is still in a long-term socio-economic decline and it is unrealistic to expect that Moscow will regain its former status as a Great Power or even Superpower in the mid-term future even of its economy and military power improve rapidly and substantially. Against this background, two other powers of the Eurasian landmass, the EU and China will surpass Russia in international standing and secure great power status in the coming decades with far-reaching consequences for the international system and Russia's security as well as for its role in Europe and Central as well a East Asia. In this light, the article analyzes strategic trends in domestic, foreign and security policies, including the impact of often overlooked factors such as demographic trends and the health crisis, of decentralization, regionalization and fragmentation within the Russian Federation, the future of Russia's military reform policies (including Russia's draft military doctrine of October 1999 and its nuclear illusions) and their implications for Russia's future foreign and security policies." (author's abstract)