Myanmar's post-coup foreign policy and alignment behavior: assessing the agency of a "Pariah State"

Abstract

The article scrutinizes the impact of the 2021 military coup and ensuing civil war on Myanmar's foreign policy, by looking at the degree of agency retained by Naypyidaw in its alignment choices vis-à-vis great powers. The investigation shows that despite a highly deteriorated strategic environment marked by Western isolation and the revival of the country's status as a "pariah state," post-coup Myanmar still exhibits agency and autonomy in its alignment behavior. This ability is evidenced in the evolution of Naypyidaw's hedging strategy after the putsch, which saw the junta engaging Russia, Japan, and India to fill the power gap prompted by the retreat of Western stakeholders and find new counterweights to China's influence. Accordingly, such resolve in preserving the country's nonaligned posture serves as a stark reminder that regardless of their intrinsic deficiencies, weak actors like Myanmar often opt for nuanced alignment blueprints, alternatives to both balancing and bandwagoning.