Elite perceptions of a China-led regional order in Southeast Asia

Abstract

How do Southeast Asian states perceive a China-led regional order? To answer this question, we conducted a survey of elites from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, countries that are "least likely" to acquiesce to a China-led regional order. Our survey indicates that although most elites view China as influential and have a cultural affinity with it, they do not perceive China as having the authority to preside over the regional order. They do not identify with China's political values and the normative order it propounds. Our survey also reveals the salience of ASEAN as the region navigates great power rivalry. We explain these views by drawing from the concept of legitimate authority. Our findings are significant; if China cannot persuade its Southeast Asian neighbours of its right to lead, it will be even harder for China to exercise global leadership.