Polarization and Democracy in Central Europe

Abstract

This article examines the dual role of polarization in fostering political mobilization for and against democracy in Central and Eastern Europe. Populist movements in this region often drive democratic decline, yet, notable cases, such as electoral victories in Czechia (2021) and Poland (2023), suggest that civil society can counter these trends. Following Schedler (2023), we perceive polarization as a fundamental democratic conflict about democratic norms and values. This study investigated how varying forms of polarization - ideological, affective, intransigent, and partisan sorting - affected the mobilization dynamics for and against democracy. We highlight that polarization affected mobilization for democracy more strongly than mobilization for autocracy - i.e., civil society successfully mobilized against populism. In a critical case study of limited polarized pluralism in the 2023 Czechia presidential election between populist and anti‐populist candidates, affective and partisan sorting polarization were the strongest predictors of populist support, with anger at the political situation boosting votes for the populist candidate. At the same time, pro‐Ukrainian stances drove support for the anti‐populist candidate. Our findings revealed that affective polarization and partisan sorting significantly shaped mobilization outcomes, thereby impacting democratic resilience and decay. By distinguishing between types of polarization, this study enhances the understanding of their distinct roles in political mobilization, thus underscoring that while polarization can threaten democracy, certain forms can also strengthen civic mobilization against populist movements.