Great Powers and Gatekeepers in the Western Balkans: Serbia's Strategic Hedging

Abstract

Great-power interest in the Western Balkans has risen over the last few years, and while the West, China, and Russia have been competing for influence, Western Balkan leaders have encouraged the greater engagement of external actors in the region. This article contributes to the study of the gatekeeping role of Western Balkan leaders by examining Serbia's foreign policy towards great powers since Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (hereinafter; the SNS) rose to power. The article argues that Serbia has adopted the strategy of hedging not only towards the European Union (EU) and the United States, but also towards Russia and China, sending ambiguous and contradictory signals on its alignment preferences. In doing so, the incumbent regime has sought to increase its domestic legitimacy and generate benefits for its patronage and clientelistic networks. The article assesses that Serbia’s strategy has been successful, as it has been perceived as credible and has involved only relatively moderate costs for the great powers. Still, the tenability of Serbia's hedging in the long term is doubtful in a structural setting marked by the increased fierceness of the competition between the great powers. Therefore, to comprehend the influence of the great powers on the Western Balkans, we should take into consideration both the structural environment and the preferences and actions of the countries in the region.