No Longer a Colossus on Clay Feet: Russia's Cooperation with OPEC+ and the Future of the Cartel

Abstract

Considered a "colossus on clay feet" during the first years of its existence, OPEC+ evolved into a durable and sustainable structure capable of influencing the situation in the global oil market, and one that also enjoys a relatively long-term planning horizon in the current times of unpredictability. Not the least role in this was played by the development of the Russian-Saudi dialogue, as well as by the Kremlin's growing responsibility as an OPEC+ member. The rationale behind the Russian behavior is more complicated than it might seem: the Kremlin's strategy toward OPEC+ has been shaped not only by Russia's need to ensure funding for its war in Ukraine, but also by its serious economic concerns related to the future of the global oil market.