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Iraq 20 Years after the US Invasion: Challenges and Continuity
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Nahost-Studien
Abstract Two decades after the US invasion of Iraq, the civil war of the years that followed and the ravages of the Islamic State have faded into the background. Yet the country remains shaken by internal cleavages, torn apart by corruption, and vulnerable to influence operations by external actors. Overcomi... view more
Two decades after the US invasion of Iraq, the civil war of the years that followed and the ravages of the Islamic State have faded into the background. Yet the country remains shaken by internal cleavages, torn apart by corruption, and vulnerable to influence operations by external actors. Overcoming economic crisis and infrastructural shortcomings could contribute to greater political stability.
Oil production has doubled over the past two decades. The historical underdevelopment of the Iraqi oil sector has been reversed, yet the federal oil law has been contested between Baghdad and Erbil. Natural gas production has grown in recent years as well, but still falls short of providing enough energy to the power grid. The country is a net importer of natural gas, relying on supplies from Iran.
Oil remains paramount for the Iraqi state, its budget, exports, and its economy. Heavy industries like fertilisers and petrochemicals could enhance the value chain of Iraq's primary resources that include the second-largest phosphate reserves worldwide.
Population growth in Iraq is still high. Beyond hydrocarbons, economic diversification in other areas is urgently needed. This could include alternative energies, light industries, education, services, water management, and a reorientation of agriculture.
Iraq ranks 157 out of 180 in the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International. Its consociational muhasasa system, which allocates power along sectarian lines, is abetting such corruption and thus requires reform.
Iraq can be a vital partner for European energy cooperation and not only in hydrocarbons, but competition from China is stiff. Europe is already eyeing collaboration with Middle East and North Africa countries on the production of green hydrogen. Interconnectors of electricity grids within and beyond the region as well as storage solutions are needed to increase the share of renewables involved in power generation.... view less
Keywords
Iraq; United States of America; war; post-war period; post-war society; islamism; crude oil; energy policy; economy; energy industry; population development; renewable energy; international relations; corruption; international competition; Europe; China; Middle East; Arab countries
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
City
Hamburg
Page/Pages
9 p.
Series
GIGA Focus Nahost, 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gfme-23012
ISSN
1862-3611
Status
Published Version; reviewed