When Tone Is Not Everything: Joe Biden and Latin America

Abstract

Joe Biden's election has raised many expectations. However, due to long-established legacies and predominant bipartisan consensus around the United States' Western Hemisphere policy, changes will be in tone rather than in substance. Four topics will shape the agenda. Post-COVID-19 reconstruction: With the pandemic raging across the region, a return to a "business as usual" approach will not meet the Latin American people's urgent economic, political, and social needs. COVID-19 has further brought to light the region's structural problems, including but not limited to poverty, inequality, and insecurity. Migration: Biden has promised to boost the resources sent to Central American countries by USD 4 billion in the hope of reducing immigration to the US. The president wants to carry out a so-far-abstract and light migration reform as well. However, there is no discernible strategy to deal with the rest of the hemisphere's challenges (e.g. the Venezuelan crisis). Democracy: Not every president is happy with the election's result. From Mexico to Brazil, passing through Central America, some governments identified with Donald Trump's confrontational rhetoric and profited from his disregard for their internal affairs. Among them, far-right leaders fear the end of the "free pass" granted to their heavy-handed and anti-democratic words and deeds. Regional and global scenario: in the context of China's increasing economic and diplomatic presence in the region, Biden's appeal to restore US "hemispheric leadership" appears hollow. Trump's actions and the political cleavages he helped deepen have turned the US into a less reliable partner. As a consequence, Latin America will have to find its own answers, and new strategic partners to implement them. The region is essentially alone in weathering the COVID-19 and the structural problems the crisis exacerbates. In this context, Latin America and the European Union will need to undertake more relevant, autonomous joint strategic initiatives or resign themselves to being bystanders in others' commercial, technological, and geopolitical endeavours.