International schemes, Libyan realities: attempts at appeasing Khalifa Haftar risk further escalating Libya's civil war

Abstract

Almost eight months into the offensive on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar's “Libyan Arab Armed Forces” (LAAF), the war shows no signs of abating. Ongoing diplomatic efforts are divorced from realities on the ground. The current balance of forces rules out any possibility for a return to a political process. This would require either robust inter­national guarantees or a fragmentation of both opposing camps. As long as Haftar has the chance to advance in Tripoli, he and his foreign supporters will view negotia­tions as a tactic to divide his opponents and move closer to seizing power. To create the conditions for negotiations, Western states should work to weaken Haftar’s alliance - and ultimately to prepare the post-Haftar era.