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The 2005 Federal Election in Germany 2005 – an Analysis Sketching an Integrative Model to Explain Voting Behaviour.

[journal article]

Paul, Mario

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Abstract Despite the existence of various significant theories, finding one reliable way of analysing election remains difficult. The short-term impacts of election have gained more importance for voting behaviour, while socio-structural classes have become differentiated even further and party identification has become weaker. In contrast, the accuracy of statistical data from election polls and their coverage in the media suggested a high quality of prognosis. The federal election in Germany 2005 were a showcase for that. According to the author, psephology lacks a systematic combination of possible motives for voting behaviour. This hampers the interpretation of statistical data, because there is no comprehensive frame which restrains an overor under-emphasis of single factors. In his article he outlines a research perspective that can contribute to ease this lack of systematic in psephology. His aim is to present a theoretical frame that brings together profitable results of psephology and provides new impulses for developing theories of voting behaviour. Only a combination of single approaches and thus the resulting formulation of an integrative theory – the main thesis of his article – is able to comprehend voting behaviour in its entirety and to accomplish a systematic weighting of single influence factors. A first test for this thesis and the outlined integrative model is the analysis of the German federal election of 2005.
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords voting behaviour; theory; German federal election 2005; agenda-setting; micro-sociological theory; cleavage theory; Ann Arbor Model; social-psychological approach; political communication; framing process; hermeneutic; rational-choice approach
Publication Year 2006
Page/Pages p. 63-83
Journal Politics in Central Europe, 2 (2006) 1
Status Published Version; peer reviewed
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications