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Three scenarios for the Qatar crisis: regime change, resolution or Cold War in the Gulf
Drei Szenarien zur Katar-Krise: zwischen Regime-Change, Konfliktbeilegung und Kaltem Krieg am Golf
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract On 5 June 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and a number of allied states broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed a partial blockade. Their stated demand was for Qatar to cease its support for "terrorist" groups and its policy of "destabilising" other countries. ... view more
On 5 June 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and a number of allied states broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed a partial blockade. Their stated demand was for Qatar to cease its support for "terrorist" groups and its policy of "destabilising" other countries. With Qatar rejecting the charges as baseless, the prospects for resolution appear thin. The most conceivable scenarios are forcible replacement of the Qatari leadership, peaceful resolution between the parties, or consolidation of the rift between two camps in the Gulf. Germany and other European states should avoid taking sides, but should assert three fundamental demands: the conflict parties must respect national sovereignty and the proportionality required by international law, refrain from instrumentalising the fight against terrorism, and prevent the dispute spilling over into other conflicts in the region. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Persian Gulf; international conflict; Qatar; non-intervention; diplomacy; international relations; conflict management; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Egypt; political crisis
Classification
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Internationale Krise; Blockade; Konfliktpartei/Konfliktbeteiligte; Konfliktverlauf; Szenario
Document language
English
Publication Year
2017
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
4 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 25/2017
ISSN
1861-1761
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications