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Burying heads in Geneva sands: without dismantling the sectarian crux of Assad's rule, Syria peace talks are unlikely to usher in stability


Oweis, Khaled Yacoub

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Corporate Editor Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract A web of corruption involving the Assad family, the security apparatus, and their business cohorts has been a major factor behind the outbreak of the Syrian revolt that started in 2011. UN-facilitated talks between the regime and the opposition are set to convene in Geneva in January 2016, after the refugee crisis in Europe and Russia’s entry into the Syrian war prompted a renewed international push to solve the conflict in Vienna. The proposed “thematic” negotiations ambitiously cover humanitarian issues; the military, terrorism, and security; the constitution and political systems; institutions and reconstruction. Germany set up an international fund for the rebuilding of Syria in 2013. But a deal that does not tackle fundamental imbalances linked to the domination of Assad’s Alawite sect risks repeating the reconstruction debacle of post-Saddam Iraq, inviting the Sunni majority to scuttle any stabilization and recovery efforts. (Autorenreferat)
Keywords Syria; civil war; conflict management; Sunni; post-war period; reconstruction; corruption; crime fighting; legal order; securing of power; constitutional state; peace negotiation; political actor; UNO; political system; state machinery
Classification Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords Alawiten; Asad, Bassar al-
Document language English
Publication Year 2015
City Berlin
Page/Pages 8 p.
Series SWP Comments, 52/2015
ISSN 1861-1761
Status Published Version; reviewed
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications