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Evolutionary model of Moore's law

[journal article]

Kaldasch, Joachim

Abstract

"Moore suggested an exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits. In this paper, Moore’s law is derived from a preferential growth model of successive production technology generations. The theory suggests that products manufactured with a new production technolo... view more

"Moore suggested an exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits. In this paper, Moore’s law is derived from a preferential growth model of successive production technology generations. The theory suggests that products manufactured with a new production technology generating lower costs per unit have a competitive advantage on the market. Therefore, previous technology generations are replaced according to a Fisher-Pry law. Discussed is the case that a production technology is governed by a cost relevant characteristic. If this characteristic is bounded by a technological or physical boundary, the presented evolutionary model predicts an asymptotic approach to this limit. The model discusses the wafer size evolution and the long term evolution of Moore’s law for the case of a physical boundary of the lithographic production technology. It predicts that the miniaturization process of electronic devices will slow down considerably in the next two decades." (author's abstract)... view less

Keywords
production; manufacturing technology; evolution; economy; production engineering; technology

Classification
Manufacturing
Natural Science and Engineering, Applied Sciences

Document language
English

Publication Year
2014

Page/Pages
7 p.

Journal
ISRN Economics (2014)

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/781623

Status
Published Version; peer reviewed

Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution


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© 2007 - 2025 Social Science Open Access Repository (SSOAR).
Based on DSpace, Copyright (c) 2002-2022, DuraSpace. All rights reserved.