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Does violence pay? The effect of ethnic rebellion on overcoming political deprivation

[journal article]

Koos, Carlo

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Abstract Studies have found that politically deprived groups are more likely to rebel. However, does rebellion increase the likelihood of achieving political rights? This article proposes that rebellion helps ethnic groups to overcome deprivation. I illustrate this by using a “typical” case (the Ijaw’s struggle against the Nigerian government) to demonstrate how ethnic rebellion increases the costs for the government to a point where granting political rights becomes preferable to war. Further, I exploit time-series-cross-sectional data on deprived ethnic groups to show that rebellion is significantly associated with overcoming deprivation. The statistical analysis shows that democratic change is an alternative mechanism.
Keywords civil war; political negotiation; ethnic conflict; ethnic group; conflict research; resistance; Nigeria; warfare; rights of personal liberty; political change; statistical analysis; government policy
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture; Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords Asymmetric warfare; ethnic rebellion; political deprivation; strategic bargaining
Document language English
Publication Year 2014
Page/Pages p. 1-22
Journal Conflict Management and Peace Science (2014)
ISSN 1549-9219
Status Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.