More documents from Madureira, Nuno Luis
More documents from Historical Social Research

Export to your Reference Manger

Please Copy & Paste



Bookmark and Share

Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock

Warten auf die Energiekrise: Europa und die USA am Vorabend des ersten Ölschocks
[journal article]

Madureira, Nuno Luis

fulltextDownloadDownload full text

(643 KByte)

Citation Suggestion

Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:

Further Details
Abstract A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.
Keywords energy supply; crisis; natural resources; energy production; market; Arab countries; pressure-group politics; crude oil; price; energy policy; United States of America; Europe
Classification Special areas of Departmental Policy; International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy; General History
Free Keywords information asymmetry
Document language English
Publication Year 2014
Page/Pages p. 70-93
Journal Historical Social Research, 39 (2014) 4
Issue topic The energy crises of the 1970s
ISSN 0172-6404
Status Published Version; peer reviewed
Licence Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works