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Waiting for the energy crisis: Europe and the United States on the eve of the first oil shock

Warten auf die Energiekrise: Europa und die USA am Vorabend des ersten Ölschocks
[Zeitschriftenartikel]

Madureira, Nuno Luis

Zitationshinweis

Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-404908

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Abstract A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt’s disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men – James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland – who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.
Thesaurusschlagwörter energy supply; crisis; natural resources; energy production; market; Arab countries; pressure-group politics; crude oil; price; energy policy; United States of America; Europe
Klassifikation spezielle Ressortpolitik; internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik; allgemeine Geschichte
Freie Schlagwörter information asymmetry
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2014
Seitenangabe S. 70-93
Zeitschriftentitel Historical Social Research, 39 (2014) 4
Heftthema The energy crises of the 1970s
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93
ISSN 0172-6404
Status Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Nicht kommerz., Keine Bearbeitung
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