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Breakpoint detection within the time series: modeling approach upon paleoclimatic proxy data

Bruchpunktdetektion im Prozess der Zeitreihenmodellierung anhand paläoklimatologischer Proxydaten

Lüder, Johannes; Brauer, Achim; Jurisch, Ronald


Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-372960

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Abstract "A large portion of research in time series analysis addresses questioning specific components like trend, cycle or seasonal behavior. Although there is a vast number of publications, only a small amount focuses on the research of irregularities, which are supposed to be within time series - especially in long-term data. Thus this paper focuses on detection of those irregularities and to illustrate the importance of breakpoint estimation. The underlying research theme is given by the discipline of Paleoclimatology. The investigation has been realized upon varved lake sediments as one of common proxydata in paleoclimatics. As the discipline provides insights in climate variability, questioning climate changes implies crucial information about mechanisms of rapid climate shifts. The paper shall also outline the importance of such information, since conducting time series modeling without interdisciplinary research constitutes an almost impossible tack. Consequently time series analysis turns out in a procedure of modeling supposed components - like trend, cycles or irregularities - of the underlying datagenerating process and to image those in an appropriate degree." (author's abstract)
Thesaurusschlagwörter climate change; trend; model; model construction; Federal Republic of Germany; Berlin; historical analysis; estimation; strategy; time series
Klassifikation Forschungsarten der Sozialforschung; Naturwissenschaften, Technik(wissenschaften), angewandte Wissenschaften
Methode Grundlagenforschung; Methodenentwicklung
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2012
Seitenangabe S. 315-325
Zeitschriftentitel Historical Social Research, 37 (2012) 2
ISSN 0172-6404
Status Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Nicht-kommerz.