Opinion Polls, Voters’ Intentions and Expectations in the 2011 Croatian Parliamentary Elections

Abstract

Decades of research still providing no clear answer to the question of pre-election poll influence on voter decision making, some authors have proposed the shift in focus to be made from research of “poll effects” to research of “preconditions for poll effects”. It is hypothesized that, for poll results to have any direct influence on the voters, voters must attend to published pre-election polls, they must accurately retain the results, and trust the credibility of such forecasts. Using data collected during the 2011 parliamentary election campaign in Croatia, this paper examines to what extent these preconditions are satisfied among the Croatian voters, and how they relate to certain aspects of voting behaviour, in particular, voters’ intentions and expectations. Findings presented in this study demonstrate that the preconditions for poll effects are satisfied for, at most, one-third of the Croatian electorate. Additional analyses provide evidence for the presence of substantial effects of media polls on voters’ expectations in the 2011 election run-up. However, with regard to voters’ intentions, findings are more ambiguous, suggesting factors other than those analysed to be responsible for the observed differences in the intended electoral turnout and vote choice.