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Demographische Ursachen langfristiger Wachstumszyklen? Fragen zur Konzeption ökonomischer Zyklustheorien

Demographic Causes for Long-Term Growth Cycles? Questions to Conceptualization of Economic Cylce Theories
[collection article]

Wagner, Adolf

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Abstract The scepticism regarding long-term cycles/waves/oscülations and thrusts in economic development has not prevented a fresh discussion about Kondratiev in the Federal Republic of Germany. Demographic factors as possible causes have hitherto been given httle attention in theories of long-term growth cycies, although it should be obvious that, at least formaUy observed, two generations correspond approximately to one Kondratiev cycle. Cyclical oscülations in population size, labour force and the consumer-labour ratio may be caused by unique occurrances and special influences. The concept of demographic structure cycles appears to be a suitable contributing factor in explaining long-term waves. If one operates with theories of long-term waves at all, one must surely do so with reference to demographic factors! Demographic structure cycies ought to be taken into consideration in future empirical research of long-term waves in the gross national product and in unemployment.
Keywords economic growth; economic development (on national level); economic trend; business cycle; theoretical economics; population development; declining birth rate; demand; consumption; demographical structure; unemployment; Federal Republic of Germany
Classification National Economy; Social History, Historical Social Research
Free Keywords demographischer Strukturwandel
Collection Title Historische Konjunkturforschung
Editor Schröder, Wilhelm H.; Spree, Reinhard
Document language German
Publication Year 1980
Publisher Klett-Cotta
City Stuttgart
Page/Pages p. 339-358
Series Historisch-Sozialwissenschaftliche Forschungen : quantitative sozialwissenschaftliche Analysen von historischen und prozeß-produzierten Daten, 11
ISSN 0173-2153
ISBN 3-12-911110-7
Status Published Version; peer reviewed
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications