Verblüffender Aufschwung in Kambodscha – Wirtschaftswunder oder Scheinblüte in einem leidgeprüften ASEAN-Staat?

Abstract

In 2004 the economy of Cambodia was still regarded as being a big loser, at least in the eyes of foreigners; three years later however it is praised, on the contrary, as a kind of go-getter. Main reasons for this fundamental change of view were the turning of Cambodia into a (nearly) free market economy in general and the contribution of quite a few economic sectors (like textile industry, tourism, agriculture and extraction economy) in particular. Even a sceptical institution like the IMF has become optimistic in the meantime and predicts a GNP-growth of 9% until the end of 2007. What is it about? A lasting upswing or just a sham boom? In favour of Cambodia there is the persistence of strong increases since 2003, is a low inflation, a stable exchange rate and the rather realistic expectation that the kingdom can turn into a petroleum-exporting country until 2009/10. On the other side, Cambodia suffers from infrastructural bottlenecks and from depressing social loads: 35% of the population continue living below the official poverty line.