Democratic transition and the evolution of mass politics in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Die vergleichende soziologische Wahlforschung ist lange Zeit der Brennpunkt des Studiums des politischen Verhaltens der Bevölkerung gewesen. Hauptsächlich in der Phase der späten 60er und frühen 70er Jahre haben Stein Rokkan und andere Politologen einen begrifflich-theoretischen Bezugsrahmen entwickelt, der die Genese und Natur politischer Prozesse aus den Konflikt- und Spannungslinien einer Gesellschaft (cleavages) heraus erklärt. Der vorliegende Beitrag testet diesen Ansatz anhand der Wahlergebnisse der postsozialistischen Gesellschaften Polen und Rumänien seit der Wende. Die empirische Analyse des Zusammenhangs zwischen der gesamtgesellschaftlichen funktionalen und territorialen Differenzierung für diese Länder bestätigt die Fruchtbarkeit dieses Ansatzes auch für die neuen osteuropäischen Demokratien. In beiden Ländern strukturiert sich die Politik und das Parteiensystem um die Konfliktlinien Staat/Kirche, Regionalismus/Ethnizität und Besitz und Arbeit. (pmb)

'The comparative sociology of elections has been a central focus in the study of mass political behavior. Of special concern to pioneers such as Stein Rokkan have been comparative generalizations regarding the genesis and nature of political conflicts and cleavages, and the structuring of mass politics around the poles of government and opposition. The principal task of this analysis is to examine the recent electoral experience of two post-comunist states - Poland and Romania - as they confront the transition toward democratic rule. Both states have had a variety of significant electoral consultations which enable us to identify patterns of stability or change in aggregate voter alignments. Our approach at this stage has been to employ ecological data to draw out inferences about emergent patterns of electoral alignments as they relate to government and opposition in these two societies. The findings suggest elements of both continuity and change. While some groups from the pre-Communist period experienced a political revival and secured electoral niches, the collapse of the Communist order has given rise to new lines of cleavage not evident in the pre-Communist period. The first democratic elections appeared to have been defining events in that they exposed long-standing ethnic, nationalist and regional cleavages which were suppressed by the Communist regime. Regional disparities in economic development also gained political salience and became a major factor in voting patterns. The articulation of these issues was greatly assisted by proportional electoral laws. The evidence suggests an early 'freezing' of partisan differences which have begun to take shape around distinct bases of support in each society.' (author's abstract)