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Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data

[journal article]

Bernasconi, Michele; Kirchkamp, Oliver; Paruolo, Paolo

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Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-292141

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Abstract We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data that is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We test the validity of the setup and find that participants understand the meaning of the fiscal variables, but also that their ability to perceive the correct characteristics of fiscal policy is limited. Expectations are consistent neither with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations, but instead follow an augmented-adaptive scheme.
Classification Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods
Document language English
Publication Year 2009
Page/Pages p. 253-265
Journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 70 (2009) 1-2
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2008.11.002
Status Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)