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Against all odds? : the red-green victory

[journal article]

Norpoth, Helmut; Gschwend, Thomas

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Abstract "Picking Winners in electoral contests is a popular sport in Germany, as in many places elsewhere. During the 2002 campaign for the Bundestag, pre election polls tracked the horse race of party support almost daily. Election junkies were invited to enter online sweepstakes. They could also bet real money albeit in limited quantity, on the parties' fortunes on WAHL$TREET, a mock stock market run by DIE ZEIT an other media. As usual, election night witnessed the race of the networks to project the winner the second the polls where voters had cast their ballots closed. But in 2002, there was also one newcomer in the business of electoral prophecy: a statistical forecast based on insights from electoral research. (...)" (excerpt)
Keywords Federal Republic of Germany; election research; election result; voting behavior; election to the Bundestag; prognosis; model; statistical analysis
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method documentation
Document language English
Publication Year 2003
Page/Pages p. 15-34
Journal German Politics and Society, 21 (2003) 1
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne