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Institutional incentives for strategic voting and party system change in Portugal


Gschwend, Thomas


Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257910

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Abstract "Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide an evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. Employing district-level data from 1975-2002 I estimate that a party, who is expected to win no seat, will be strategically deserted on average by about 3 per cent of the voters. This number does systematically vary with the district magnitude of each district. Nevertheless even in Portugal's largest electoral district, Lisbon, strategic voting can be observed to have a systematic impact on parties vote shares. Moreover there is evidence that strategic voting can partly account for the majoritarian trend that can be observed within the Portuguese party system." (author's abstract)
Thesaurusschlagwörter election; voting behavior; election by proportional representation; party system; election result; strategy; voter; electoral district; Portugal
Klassifikation politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Methode empirisch
Freie Schlagwörter elections; proportional representation; strategic voting; party systems; electoral behaviour
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2007
Seitenangabe S. 15-31
Zeitschriftentitel Portuguese Journal of Social Sscience, 6 (2007) 1
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1386/pjss.6.1.15_1
Lizenz Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Datenlieferant Dieser Metadatensatz wurde vom Sondersammelgebiet Sozialwissenschaften (USB Köln) erstellt.