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Institutional incentives for strategic voting and party system change in Portugal

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Gschwend, Thomas

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Abstract "Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide an evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. Employing district-level data from 1975-2002 I estimate that a party, who is expected to win no seat, will be strategically deserted on average by about 3 per cent of the voters. This number does systematically vary with the district magnitude of each district. Nevertheless even in Portugal's largest electoral district, Lisbon, strategic voting can be observed to have a systematic impact on parties vote shares. Moreover there is evidence that strategic voting can partly account for the majoritarian trend that can be observed within the Portuguese party system." (author's abstract)
Keywords election; voting behavior; election by proportional representation; party system; election result; strategy; voter; electoral district; Portugal
Classification Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method empirical
Free Keywords elections; proportional representation; strategic voting; party systems; electoral behaviour
Document language English
Publication Year 2007
Page/Pages p. 15-31
Journal Portuguese Journal of Social Sscience, 6 (2007) 1
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne