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The chancellor model: forecasting German elections


Norpoth, Helmut; Gschwend, Thomas


Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257809

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Abstract "Our forecast model for German Bundestag elections relies on three predictors: (1) the popularity of the incumbent chancellor (hence the christening of it as the 'Chancellor Model'); (2) the long-term partisan balance in the German electorate; and (3) the cost of ruling, as captured by the tenure of the government in office. The model forecasts the vote share of the governing parties (typically two, such as Social Democrats and Greens, or Christian Democrats and Free Democrats), except for instances of a grand coalition. The coefficients of the predictors are estimated based on elections since 1949, the beginning of the Federal Republic. The out-of-sample forecasts of the model deviate from the actual results by just over one percentage point, on average. The first real-time test of the model came in 2002. The forecast issued three months before Election Day picked the incumbent vote share to the decimal (47.1% for the SPD-Greens coalition); for the 2005 election, called a year early, our forecast three weeks before Election Day was just three-tenths of a percentage off the mark. For the upcoming election, we offer separate forecasts, conditional at this moment, for each of the two parties in the grand coalition." (authors abstract)
Thesaurusschlagwörter Federal Republic of Germany; election; prognosis; predictive model; election to the Bundestag; Federal Chancellor; popularity; voting behavior; election result
Klassifikation politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter election forecasting; government popularity; German elections; multivariate models
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2010
Seitenangabe 42–53 S.
Zeitschriftentitel International Journal of Forecasting, 26 (2010) 1
DOI http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.02.008
Lizenz Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Datenlieferant Dieser Metadatensatz wurde vom Sondersammelgebiet Sozialwissenschaften (USB Köln) erstellt.