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Business cycle comovement in the G-7: common shocks or common transmission mechanisms?


Morana, Claudio; Bagliano, Fabio C.


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Abstract What are the sources of macroeconomic comovement among G-7 countries? Two main candidate explanations may be singled out: common shocks and common transmission mechanisms. In the paper it is shown that they are complementary, rather than alternative, explanations. By means of a large-scale factor vector autoregressive (FVAR) model, allowing for full economic and statistical identification of all global and idiosyncratic shocks, it is found that both common disturbances and common transmission mechanisms of global and country-specific shocks account for business cycle comovement in the G-7 countries. Moreover, spillover effects of foreign idiosyncratic disturbances seem to be a less important factor than the common transmission of global or domestic shocks in the determination of international macroeconomic comovements.
Klassifikation Volkswirtschaftslehre; Wirtschaftsstatistik, Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftsinformatik
Freie Schlagwörter business cycle comovement; factor vector autoregressive model; transmission mechanisms; C32; E32
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2010
Seitenangabe S. 2327-2345
Zeitschriftentitel Applied Economics, 42 (2010) 18
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701858067
Status Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)