More documents from Markellos, Raphael Nicholas
More documents from Applied Economics
Export to your Reference Manger
Please Copy & Paste
Bibtex-Export
Endnote-Export
Nonlinear Modeling of European Football Scores Using Support Vector Machines
[journal article]
Markellos, Raphael Nicholas
Download full text
(357 KByte)
Citation Suggestion
Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-242840
Further Details
| Abstract | This paper explores the linear and nonlinear forecastability of European football match scores using IX2 and Asian Handicap odds data from the English Premier league. To this end, we compare the performance of a Poisson count regression to that of a nonparametric Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Our descriptive analysis of the odds and match outcomes indicate that these variables are strongly interrelated in a nonlinear fashion. An interesting finding is that the size of the Asian Handicap appears to be a significant predictor of both home and away team scores. The modeling results show that while the SVM is only marginally superior on the basis of statistical criteria, it manages to produce out-of-sample forecasts with much higher economic significance. |
| Classification | National Economy; Economic Sectors |
| Document language | English |
| Publication Year | 2008 |
| Page/Pages | p. 111-118 |
| Journal | Applied Economics, 40 (2008) 1 |
| DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701731546 |
| ISSN | 1466-4283 |
| Status | Postprint; peer reviewed |
| Licence | PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project) |
