Export für Ihre Literaturverwaltung

Übernahme per Copy & Paste
Bibtex-Export
Endnote-Export

       

Weiterempfehlen

Bookmark and Share


Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union

[Zeitschriftenartikel]

Jansen, David-Jan; Haan, Jakob de

Zitationshinweis

Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-242772

Weitere Angaben:
Abstract We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. Using ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule, we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to interest rate decisions. At the same time, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions. Both types of models have difficulty in predicting changes in the main refinancing rate. (author's abstrac)
Thesaurusschlagwörter monetary policy; European Central Bank; communication; public relations work; EU
Klassifikation Europapolitik; Wirtschaftspolitik
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2009
Seitenangabe S. 1995-2003
Zeitschriftentitel Applied Economics, 41 (2009) 16
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840802167384
Status Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)
top