Exchange rate policy and trade balance: a cointegration analysis of the Argentine experience since 1962

Abstract

Using multivariate cointegration tests for non-stationary data and vector error correction models, this paper examines the determinants of trade balance for Argentina over the last forty to fifty years taking into account that the short-run impacts of currency depreciation on the trade balance behaviour may differ from the long-run effects. Our investigation confirms the existence of long-run relationships among trade balance, real exchange rate and foreign and domestic incomes for Argentina during different real exchange rate management policies. Based on the estimations, the Marshall-Lerner condition is checked and, by means of impulse response functions, we trace the effect of a one-time shock to the real exchange rate on the trade balance not finding support for a J-curve pattern in the short-run.