Macroeconomics and agriculture in Tunisia

Abstract

This paper aims to analyse the impact of changes in the monetary policy and the exchange rate on agricultural supply, prices and exports. The methodology used is based on the multivariate cointegration approach. Ten variables are considered: interest and exchange rates, money supply, inflation, agricultural output and input prices, agricultural supply and exports, income and the rate of commercial openness. The sample period covers annual data from 1967 to 2002. Due to the short sample period, two subsystems are considered. First, long-run relationships are identified in each subsystem. Second, both subsystems are merged in order to calculate the short-run dynamics. The results indicate that changes in macroeconomic variables have an effect on the agricultural sector but the reverse effect does not hold.