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Modelling the General Public's Inflation Expectations Using the Michigan Survey Data

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Luoma, Arto; Luoto, Jani

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Abstract In this paper we discuss a few models developed to explain the general public's inflation expectations formation and provide some relevant estimation results. Furthermore, we suggest a simple Bayesian learning model which could explain the expectations formation process on the individual level. When the model is aggregated to the population level it could explain not only the mean values, but also the variance of the public’s inflation expectations. The estimation results of the mean and variance equations seem to be consistent with the results of the questionnaire studies in which the respondents were asked to report their thoughts and opinions about inflation.
Document language English
Publication Year 2009
Page/Pages p. 1311-1320
Journal Applied Economics, 41 (2009) 10
Status Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)