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Modelling the General Public's Inflation Expectations Using the Michigan Survey Data


Luoma, Arto; Luoto, Jani


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Abstract In this paper we discuss a few models developed to explain the general public's inflation expectations formation and provide some relevant estimation results. Furthermore, we suggest a simple Bayesian learning model which could explain the expectations formation process on the individual level. When the model is aggregated to the population level it could explain not only the mean values, but also the variance of the public’s inflation expectations. The estimation results of the mean and variance equations seem to be consistent with the results of the questionnaire studies in which the respondents were asked to report their thoughts and opinions about inflation.
Sprache Dokument Englisch
Publikationsjahr 2009
Seitenangabe S. 1311-1320
Zeitschriftentitel Applied Economics, 41 (2009) 10
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701604339
Status Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)