Download full text
(144.3Kb)
Citation Suggestion
Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:
https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-228835
Exports for your reference manager
‘Second-order’ versus ‘Issue-voting’ Effects in EU Referendums: evidence from the Irish nice treaty referendums
[journal article]
Abstract Are referendums on EU treaties decided by voters’ attitudes to Europe (the ‘issue-voting’ explanation) or by voters’ attitudes to their national political parties and incumbent national government (the ‘second-order election model’ explanation)? In one scenario, these referendums will approximate to... view more
Are referendums on EU treaties decided by voters’ attitudes to Europe (the ‘issue-voting’ explanation) or by voters’ attitudes to their national political parties and incumbent national government (the ‘second-order election model’ explanation)? In one scenario, these referendums will approximate to deliberative processes that will be decided by people’s views of the merits of European integration. In the other scenario, they will be plebiscites on the performance of national governments. We test the two competing explanations of the determinants of voting in EU referendums using evidence from the two Irish referendums on the Nice Treaty. We find that the issue-voting model outperforms the second-order model in both referendums. However, we also find that issue-voting was particularly important in the more salient and more intense second referendum. Most strikingly, attitudes to EU enlargement were much stronger predictors of vote at Nice 2 than at Nice 1. This finding about the rise in importance of attitudes to the EU points to the importance of campaigning in EU referendums.... view less
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
European Politics
Free Keywords
effective campaigning; issue voting; Nice Treaty; referendums; second-order model
Document language
English
Publication Year
2005
Page/Pages
p. 201-221
Journal
European Union Politics, 6 (2005) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116505051983
Status
Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)