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Building long-term scenarios for development : The methodological state of the art with an application to foreign direct investment in Africa

Langfristige Entwicklungsszenarien : State of the Art der Methodologie und eine Anwendung auf ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Afrika
[research report]

Lundsgaarde, Erik

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Further Details
Corporate Editor Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH
Abstract "This study provides an introduction to scenario analysis as a tool for development policy planning. The study is divided into three parts. The first part of the study outlines the central characteristics of scenario analysis methods, distinguishes scenario analysis from other research approaches, and presents a general guide for building scenarios. Illustrations of applications of scenario analysis methods in fields related to global development complement the methodological discussions in this part of the study. A second part of the study develops an original illustration of how scenario methods can be applied to examine development policy issues byfocusing on the question of how foreign direct investment flows could change the African development landscape toward the year 2030. This chapter culminates with the presentation of four fictional narratives charting how investment patterns and development outcomes could unfoldover the next two decades.The third and final chapter of the study outlines several considerations that policymakers potentially interested in using scenario methods as a supplement to their existing planning tools should make in evaluating whether the application of these methods within their organizations is desirable." (excerpt)
Keywords foreign investment; direct investment; Africa; development policy; development planning; scenario
Classification Sociology of Developing Countries, Developmental Sociology; National Economy
Method applied research; descriptive study
Document language English
Publication Year 2008
City Bonn
Page/Pages 122 p.
Series DIE Studies, 40
ISBN 978-3-88985-376-9
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne