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Computersimulation von Peacebuilding : Anforderungen an die Modellierung von externen Strategien am Beispiel der Nato-Simulationsprogramme ZETA und GAMMA

Computer simulation of peacebuilding : demands on the modeling of external strategies using the Nato simulation programs ZETA and GAMMA as examples
[working paper]

Nonnenmacher, Maximilian

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Please use the following Persistent Identifier (PID) to cite this document:http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-110823

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Corporate Editor Universität Marburg, Zentrum für Konfliktforschung
Abstract Die NATO übernahm mit dem Einsatz in Afghanistan zum dritten Mal nach Bosnien und dem Kosovo wichtige Aufgaben bei der Aufrechterhaltung des Friedens in einem Nachkriegsland. Die vorliegende Arbeit entstand im Kontext dieser Missionserweiterung und untersucht zwei Computerprogramme, die von der NATO entwickelt worden sind, um Missionen zu planen und zu simulieren, im Hinblick auf die Frage, inwiefern diese in der Lage sind, den Herausforderungen von eskalierten Gewaltkonflikten zu begegnen. Der Schwerpunkt wird dabei auf das so genannte "post-conflict peacebuilding" gelegt, das in den letzten Jahren einen immer größeren Stellenwert bei der Nachbearbeitung solcher Konflikte erlangt hat. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zum einen die Erkenntnisse aus den praktischen Erfahrungen mit Peacebuilding und aus dem wissenschaftlichen Diskurs herausgearbeitet und andererseits mit den Möglichkeiten der beiden Computerprogramme ZETA und GAMMA verglichen. Die Kernfrage bei diesem Abgleich ist auf die Anforderungen an externe Peacebuilding-Strategien gerichtet: Wie können diese prinzipiell in den bestehenden Programmen abgebildet werden und wie werden sie in den einzelnen Szenarien dargestellt? (ICI)

"The following paper examines the requirements of simulating post-conflict peace-building. In particular two NATO simulation tools, named ZETA and GAMMA, are the objects of investigation. The question is to which degree these tools are able to simulate the reconstruction of war torn countries and how they can be adapted to the needs of post-conflict situations. This seems to be of interest due to the changing role of NATO. The first part of the paper tries to create a criteria for evaluation. The central categories of post-conflict peace-building are identified and combined with the lessons learned from completed or ongoing peace-building missions. Eleven core findings are identified and rephrased into requirements. In the second part, these and requirements are compared with the tools under two different aspects: to which degree a simulation is generally possible and how many of the requirements can be fulfilled by the existing scenarios. The research comes to the conclusion that ZETA fulfils the general requirements for post-conflict peace-building simulation to a high degree. Only the linearity and the missing possibility to simulate more than one external actor are missing. The ZETA scenario already includes many of the required elements. However, coordination, the correct assessment of the time dimension and the missing dilemmas were criticized. Although GAMMA can not be used to simulate all aspects of peace-building and although behavioural change is not implemented, GAMMA seems well equipped to simulate important aspects of peace-building: security, coordination and the context-factors are easily implementable. The studied scenario did unfortunately not contain many peace-building elements. The paper comes to the conclusion that the most challenging task of future research to design functioning scenarios, may it be for the planning of missions, for the training of peace-builders or for the analysis and explanation for problems in ongoing missions, would be the development of methods and approaches to identify the important factors and agents, and to quantify their value inside the tools." (author's abstract)
Classification Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods; Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Method applied research; descriptive study
Free Keywords NATO; Friedenstruppe; Friedenssicherung; Bürgerkrieg; politischer Konflikt; Konfliktregelung; EDV-Programm; Simulation; Strategie; Modellentwicklung; Szenario
Document language German
Publication Year 2007
City Marburg
Page/Pages 34 p.
Series CCS Working Papers, No. 5
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne
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