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International relations in 2030 : the transforming power of large developing countries

Internationale Beziehungen im Jahr 2030 : die Perspektiven großer Entwicklungsländern
[working paper]

Phillips, Lauren M.

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Further Details
Corporate Editor Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH
Abstract "This paper sets out a vision for international relations and development cooperation for the year 2030. It argues that the major transformation of the international political economy between 2007 and 2030 is likely to be the rise of large developing countries to great power status. Current trends in the growth of the economic and political power of such countries are examined, as are risks to their continued growth. These trends suggest that by 2030, it is highly likely that China, and potentially other developing countries will have become major powers, and that the international distribution of power will be multipolar. This multipolarity is less likely to be conflictual than in previous periods of historical multipolarity because of the growth of international institutions and because of the economic interdependence of major powers. The implications of this rise of large developing countries on poorer, smaller countries are not clear cut: while smaller developing countries may benefit from an increased diversity of development paradigms and reformed international institutions, conflict amongst great powers for power and influence could be played out on their territory. However, conflict between North and South over development goals and objectives is not thought to be a major risk. The overall vision for 2030 is an optimistic one, but this optimism depends both on the actions of existing and new powers in the coming 25 years." (author's abstract)
Keywords developing country; future; political development; north-south relations; economic development (on national level); political power; influence; international politics; development policy
Classification International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Method descriptive study
Document language English
Publication Year 2008
City Bonn
Page/Pages 31 p.
Series DIE Discussion Paper, 3/2008
ISBN 978-3-88985-391-2
Licence Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
data provider This metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne