Ballots over Streets: Bolivia's Fragile Democratic Gamble

Abstract

On 19 October 2025, Bolivia will hold a presidential runoff election for the first time in its history. After two decades of one-party dominance, voters turned to two opposition candidates promoting market-oriented reforms. Amid economic strain, Bolivians are channelling their discontent at the ballot box, even as governability remains uncertain. Bolivia is entering the runoff amid a crisis of representation rooted in weak parties and eroding trust in institutions. This is interacting with a further crisis: economic fragility in the form of stagnation, shrinking reserves, fuel shortages, and dependence on extractive sectors. Those working precariously and in the informal sector are hit the hardest. Satisfaction with democracy has sunk to a new low, yet Bolivians have channelled discontent electorally rather than in the streets. Protest votes surged in the first round despite both contenders offering only vague or short-term plans, which has raised doubts about their ability to confront structural challenges. The Legislative Assembly will be decisive for governability. As the most representative body, it can diffuse responsibility and lend legitimacy to unpopular reforms. Yet, neither of the candidates will have a parliamentary majority of his own. Weak parties, fragile coalitions, and politicised courts put it at risk for gridlock. The next government must rebuild legitimacy by forging coalitions, restoring institutional trust, and balancing urgent economic measures with social protection to avoid renewed conflict.